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Steve Jobs and Farhad Manjoo are wrong: Dropbox can do what Apple, Microsoft and Google can never do.

Farhad Manjoo writes in Pando Daily about how Dropbox is just a feature. Unfortunately the examples he talks about seem to support the exact opposite.

Someday, someone will figure out how to make this sort of thing work well, but I suspect it will most likely be one of the companies that makes a major operating system: Either Apple, Microsoft, or Google. Each of these firms has a file-storage and/or syncing solution that it’s pushing, and I expect that those efforts—iCloud, Skydrive, Google’s Chrome syncing and perhaps the mythical Gdrive—will gradually incorporate more and more of the features I’m looking for.

This assertion is about as wrong as could be. Earlier in the piece Farhad talks about how things just plain worked as Dropbox synced things from his Windows desktop to his Macbook Air. What are the odds of Apple getting their sync client right for PC's? Just about zero, considering what they've done in the past with MobileMe sync.

Same goes for Microsoft writing sync software for the Apple platform. Arguably Google is in the best shape to provide a seamless multiplatform experience... well, except for iOS! The odds of a viable multi-platform option emerging from one of these big three seem slim to me.

The truth is none of these behemoths will execute perfectly on this scenario in the way Dropbox (with no ulterior platform motive) can.

Dropbox is probably working to build many of these features as well. But as third-party app, it’s just not in a very good technical position to do so. In order to sync programs and window states, Dropbox would need access to some of the deeper parts of my various gadgets’ OSes. This is easy for some operating systems and impossible with others—including iOS and probably Amazon’s Kindle Fire. Apple could easily build a way to sync the current browser tabs between my Mac and my iPhone, so that I can switch from reading Pando on my couch to reading it on the train. Dropbox will need to go through incredible hacks to achieve the same functionality, and it probably won’t manage to do so even then.

Sadly Farhad is just wrong on this too. Getting native bare-metal access is easy to get on every platform that matters except iOS. On iOS, Dropbox *already* has a huge lead on all of the other file syncing platforms by virtue of wide support by the developer community. Apple will undoubtedly get some share of iOS developer love, but it is yet to be seen whether Apple will actually unseat Dropbox.

Truthfully, it is foolish to count large platform players out. But my money is on Dropbox. Until Apple wins every last device over (not even a goal of theirs), Microsoft steals the show for mobile and regains share on desktop (highly unlikely), or Google wrests mobile supremacy from the hands of iOS (not going to happen) -- the ongoing platform cold war will assure it's Dropbox that's going to be how we keep our data.

 

Posted about 1 year ago

17 responses

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Shortie said
Microsoft has done it... with mesh. has to be set up from windows side but it works... http://explore.live.com/windows-live-essentials-other-programs?T1=t4

honestly if Microsoft combines mesh and skydive into a single package and makes it install put account info and it works dropbox has no chance if they stay with their current structure. Sky drive gives you 25 gigs free and if leaks on pricing are correct it cost significantly less to add storage. I use dropbox. i have like 4 gigs with referrals... but if MS made a similar product that let me use my 25 gig on skydive I'll be saying drop who... oh that old thing.

Mikko Alasaarela said
Garry, I agree with you on the platform part, but you forgot to address the other point, which was commoditization of cloud storage. I already have around 150GB of free cloud storage across MobileMe, SkyDrive, box.net, and others. I fail to see why Google wouldn't offer nearly unlimited free cloud storage as part of the deal when you register a Chromebook or Android device. Others are going the same way. Dropbox would have to come up with something REALLY unique to be able to properly monetize the service in the future.
DataBigBang said
Sorry Garry, but it is a matter of time until some of the big players copycat DropBox completely (and then add more features. Not only that, they can offer enough free gigabytes to make the decision to move obvious (remember gmail with 1gb?)

History is on the Apple, Microsoft, Google side. Apple and Microsoft has the control of the platform, they can include it there. This history was seen many times before.

If I were Dropbox I would accept the next acquisition offer, time is running out.

mehul said
@Mikko - personally, I find the whole commoditization of storage a bit tangent to the discussion. The reason being that I and I assume many other use dropbox because it just works - it has simplicity. Very few people (especially the one who are not tech savvy) would spread their wings across 5 services. They just want something simple, something that just works, and users are always willing to pay for it if it is convenient. To me perfect example of this is itunes. Songs were and are available for free before and after itunes - yet people are paying for it because it's convenient (more than even legal). They just want their music in simple way.

Even Steve Jobs knew that it's all about software: read this fortune article from back in 2005 (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2005/02/21/8251769/ind....

Here's the most interesting part of the article: "Steve doesn't talk about the next gotta-have-it gizmo or ultracool ad campaign or trendsetting industrial design. None of those, he says, is Apple's core strength or primary competitive advantage. Instead he's going to talk about software--the central strand that runs through all of Apple's success."

Users pay for software and the experience that it delivers because it just works!

thuang513 said
You still did not answer or provide a convincing argument for the question: how is dropbox a product and more than just a feature?
MarcosPolanco said
Garry, Garry, Garry...The bigger question and the one @bgurley got us started on is whether Dropbox constitutes a disruption. It most definitely does *not* for the simple reason that the file is the wrong level of abstraction for our actions on the cloud. Synchronization must occur at the application layer, not the file system layer. You may be technically right that Dropbox may be unique in its corporate ability to accomplish what it has, but that does not answer the $40B valuation question.
maxrogo said
What are the odds of some other company getting the ability to sync a folder absolutely right? Well, I'd say the odds are 100%. First of all, other companies do this already. Second of all, Microsoft does this already. Third of all, I believe Apple and Google have the engineers to do this -- and are already doing more complicated things just fine.

I love Dropbox, but the notion that synchronizing a folder full of files is hard is kind of laughable. What's amazing about Dropbox is the whole utter simplicity of it doing that.

Joe Ross said
In my experience, no one but Dropbox has made folder syncing seamless. It's the only solution that is fire-and-forget on OS X, Windows, and Ubuntu. I've tried many of them, and there's always an incompatibility or a limitation. Don't mistake the solution's simplicity for the problem's simplicity.
Suz E. said
I'm one of THOSE people. Just a simple gal who loves Dropbox and I have used it since it's inception. Perfect for me on the go when I want to plug in my camera on a trip and upload a bunch of photos. Or to upload an ebook or some graphics from home to use while I'm gone. It's simple, easy to navigate, and it was the first thing I used like this that made my traveling much more simple. That is why I will stick with it and even pay for it if I get a notion. Google and Microsoft throw things out there first and work out the kinks later. They try to make everything too complicated. They don't follow the KISS rule.