Arthur C. Clarke formulated the following three "laws" of prediction:
- When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
- The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
- Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
via en.wikipedia.org
Just as 640k isn't really enough for anyone (Bill Gates in the 80's), and the global market for computers is definitely greater than 5 (Thomas Watson of IBM in the 50's) -- so is it that predicting the future of technology is hard as heck.
So hard, in fact, that the world's foremost experts fail routinely at prediction.
Clarke's third law is probably the most well known, but his first and second I find to be the most useful for anyone who is creative and wants to invent and affect the future in profound ways. To create what seemed to be impossible is truly the essence of an innovative, valuable act.
Explore the impossible frontier.