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Sent from my iPhone
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Sent from my iPhone
I love how all of Sonoma aspires to be various idyllic pieces of Europe.
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Sent from my iPhone
I just ran into this totally great posterous site and I had to share. Finally, some beautifully high quality wallpapers that look great on my 30" monitor.
Check it out!
Here's the one on my monitor right now...
Neutral Milk Hotel is basically the definition of indie. But I'm really digging the sound. Following the success of their album of the same name, their lead singer Jeff Mangum has rarely been seen playing in public.
According to wikipedia: "It is a spiritually motivated work conceptually based on the beauty to be found in the horrific fate of Anne Frank."
I can hear it.
Gotta stay up? Here's what has been working for me the past few weeks:
Whether you need to cram for your next final, watch one more hour of Gossip Girl, or code to obliterate your competitors, I've found these simple actions can go a long way. You got any tips to share? Would love to hear it in the comments!
Back in my days at Palantir Technologies, I distinctly remember being befuddled by the Monty Hall problem. And I also remember distinctly being an utter skeptic when it came to the actual solution. I've since come around. Here's the succinct version:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Now you'd think it wouldn't matter whether or not you switched, after all, you already made the choice, right? Probability holds constant, regardless of whether someone knows about it, right?
Wrong! You should always switch doors. And there's a simple intuitive explanation. While you made a choice initially with no information, the HOST always has to reveal one of the doors that has a goat behind it, and he essentially has more information than you do, which also affects the outcome.
There are two scenarios here:
So there you have it. Switching will cause you to win 2 out of 3 times.
Interestingly, the intuitive thing to do is to not switch. Out of 228 subjects in one study, only 13% chose to switch according to the wikipedia article, which is excellent by the way.
And if you still don't believe it, here's some monte carlo simulations by Antonio Cangiano to prove it. Code proves everything!