Bitcoin is not a toy - it has the potential to disrupt credit cards and banks and make payments zero-fee. That's the real deal.

I spoke with Michael Copeland of Wired recently for his piece on Bitcoin businesses, What’s Riskier Than Bitcoins? Bitcoin Companies

Y Combinator Partner Garry Tan is making the bet that Bitcoin succeeds with his investment in digital wallet startup Coinbase. He agrees that having some Bitcoin squirreled away is wise (and you can bet the craftiest VCs are leveraging up their own Bitcoin caches by investing in companies that takes a whack at improving the Bitcoin ecosystem).

“I have done some of that,” Tan says laughing. “But the buy and hold thing, that is not interesting to me.” What is interesting to Tan is backing companies like Coinbase that he believes can help Bitcoin make the transition from speculative “toy” that people horde like gold rather than spending, to something that people can actually use.

Tan’s vision for Bitcoin is as a universal currency that will make money transfers easy and cheap from any person or business to any other person or business across the globe. In that scenario Coinbase becomes a far-cheaper version of Visa. “Bitcoin has the potential to destroy credit cards and banks as we know it, maybe that is a good thing or a bad thing,” Tan says. “But I like the idea that if someone needs to remit payments they can do it without being gouged.”

If Bitcoin starts to become a widely used digital currency, something that people actually spend on products and services, Tan’s vision, and that of every Bitcoin economy startup and their investors, begins to make sense. 

Read the full article on Wired

Anything that has the potential to break Visa/Mastercard/American Express's stranglehold on 2% of every consumer transaction is awesome in my book. It's an absurd relic of the past and should not continue to exist, yet it does.

In my conversation with Michael, I did say that it felt to me that Bitcoin has established itself at this point -- barring a major technical flaw, I think Bitcoin is probably the right currency and others that come along will find itself like Beta in a world where VHS has already established itself. He cleverly inverted it in his conclusion. It's an open question who is right as yet -- but as investments go, Peter Thiel is widely known now for saying that the most disruptive revolutions start with a simple idea where everyone says I believe X, but the founders believe NOT X. 

Bitcoin hasn't won the world over yet, but that's OK. This is one NOT X that I think is right. 

Lessons from 2^5 that I wish I knew at 2^4

I just turned 32, and I've been thinking about things I wish I knew when I was 16. Here's the shortlist:

Products beat consulting: Zero marginal cost is amazing

When I was 16, I was happy to get paid $7/hour for working on computers. I loved computers, and $7 was more money than I really knew what do with. But it's one thing to make something for one person or one need. It is vastly more useful to create something for lots of people that can be used over and over again. When you can either create products that sell again, or you can sell your own time, always choose the former.

Learn or earn

You're always on one side or another of the learn vs. earn. Given the nature of equity and corporations, always know that owners reap the rewards and workers are transacting their time for money. But unless where you work is a co-op where profits are evenly distributed, you'll never extract the full amount of value that you create for the company. Always know whether at that moment you're learning or earning. If you're learning, then it's worth it. If you're not, you better be earning (e.g. being a founder, being a share holder). Otherwise you're just wasting time. 

Human beings are mirrors

If you have good will towards others, others will have good will towards you. That's why it is better to assume people are fundamentally good, until there is evidence to the contrary. You'll be better to others, and then they'll in turn be better to you. In contrast, if you assumed most people had ill will towards you, you in turn would likely treat them in ways that would invite that. Life seems full of self-fulfilling prophecies like that. 

These lessons I learned in just the last 2^4 years. I can only hope the next power of two will be as instructive and amazing as this one. 

Airbnb and the Sharing Economy on the cover of The Economist this month

I'm so proud of Brian, Joe and Nate at Airbnb-- it was an incredible opportunity to get to know them when they came into YC in 2009, and they continue to change the world. 

“We couldn’t have existed ten years ago, before Facebook, because people weren’t really into sharing,” says Nate Blecharczyk, one of Airbnb’s founders. Airbnb doesn’t require its users to connect their accounts to Facebook, but when people find they have friends in common with another user it sets their minds at ease. 

The article really underscores how technology progresses through society. There's a layering process happening on the Internet. People began to feel comfortable with using their social graph for proof was what allowed the sharing economy to prosper online at all. A more connected world.

In the end, Yuri Milner's belief in “the emergence of the global brain, which consists of all the humans connected to each other and to the machine and interacting in a very unique and profound way, creating an intelligence that does not belong to any single human being or computer” is one of the underlying themes of the past 10 years of Internet services. No doubt, it is this insight that led Yuri Milner to invest in Facebook. The rest of the world is merely catching up.

Read the full cover story in The Economist and the sidebar, "The Rise of the Sharing Economy"

Posterous is shutting down April 30th. I'd like you to move to Posthaven.

Hi Posterous friends (of which there are thousands of you who I've had the pleasure to talk to, email, and get to know through your posts.) It's a sad day when I have to report that Posterous is going to be shutting down April 30th. Twitter acquired the company for the talented team, but sadly not the service.  

Make sure you back up your posts by logging into Posterous and clicking Backup. 

But I also have some happier news -- I've teamed up with another one of our cofounders Brett Gibson and we're launching a replacement for Posterous called Posthaven. Instead of having to worry about whether the service you choose today will be around in ten years, we're taking a pledge to keep your URLs and data around forever.

We also want to be your best choice for next platform as you decide where to move your data. Everything you came to expect from Posterous, you'll get with Posthaven -- multiple sites, privacy, post by email, customization, you name it. Only since we're the guys who wrote a lot of it the first time, we'll be able to make it even better the second time. 

This time we're going to charge -- so we know how to pay for the servers and keep the service online no matter what. 

So come on over. We're accepting name reservations right now ($5 and it'll be applied to your first month of service) and I'll report back with more in a few weeks when we have the Posterous Importer ready for you to use. 

Reserve your spot at posthaven now

If you have any questions, feel free to email me at garry@posthaven.com.

David Gelernter predicted Dropbox in 1996

David Gelernter is prognosticating the future of the web in Wired today. He's got a history of being right:

The most important way people are going to make money on the Net is on the model of the electric power utilities or cable TV companies, by providing a service that you are going to pay for monthly. I am going to hire a server to manage all my documents, I am going to throw out my desk and file cabinets, I am not going to care what computer I use, and I will be happy to pay $12.50 a month for an absolutely reliable storage facility. This company stores my documents, supports all sorts of fancy searches, and makes my documents available anywhere.

DAVID GELERNTER, Professor of Computer Science at Yale

via Digerati, published in 1996